A Look Back: Recent Twins Draft History, Part II

With the Major League Baseball Amateur Draft on the horizon, this is the second of two articles looking at the Twins' most recent drafts. The first part looked at the first round picks of the last fifteen years and how they are faring (or have fared) in professional baseball. This week I will look at the Twins minor leagues and how the draft has been used to stock the Twins system.

In the last five years the Twins have drafted 59 players in the first ten rounds. Of those 59, 45 are currently playing (or on rosters) within the Twins organization (76%). Breaking these picks down by position shows the Twins love of young arms. 30 pitchers, 4 catchers, 6 first basemen, 6 second basemen/shortstops, 3 third basemen, and 10 outfielders were taken. This pitching fixation peaked in 2004 when 11 of the 14 players taken in the first ten rounds were pitchers. Sorting the draft picks by current level in the minors gives the data shown in the chart below:


Not surprisingly, the recent draft picks populate the low echelons of the minors. All in all it seems to be an orderly progression through the minors. Except when it comes to pitching.

Level (# of top picks)
Major Leagues (5) - Slowey, Baker, Crain, Neshek, Perkins
Rochester, AAA (6) - 3 pitchers
New Britain, AA (7) - 6 pitchers
Fort Myers, A (10) - 4 pitchers
Beloit, A (10) - 2 pitchers

If the Twins draft and sign a pitcher early in the draft, chances are they will be progressing more rapidly through the system than the other positions. From the 60 picks of our data set, the only prospects to reach the majors are pitchers, and of the four non-pitchers closest to the bigs (Span, Moses, Deeds, Plouffe), barring injury at the major league level, none have a realistic shot at significant major league experience this year. Is this evidence that the Twins scouting staff is significantly better at evaluating pitching talent than hitting prospects? Or is this just another effect of the fact that you will always need good pitching? I want to go with the second option, but the Twins farm system doesn't seem to be producing quality hitters where the major league club has its biggest holes. Even from that previous list of the four highly drafted prospects closest to the majors, I wouldn't characterize any of them as a legitimate major league bat at this point.

Other interesting notes are that none of the 2002 draft class are populating the minor leagues at a level lower than AAA. Apparently you have 3 or 4 seasons to prove yourself or you're out. That means things don't look good for David Shinskie (Ft. Myers, drafted '03) or Johnny Woodard (Beloit, drafted '03). I don't know for sure the rules about service time and minor league free agency, but I'm pretty sure that plays a role in this.

Of course, the draft is about more than just the top few picks. The Twins current farm system is littered with players drafted by the Twins in rounds after the tenth. 93 players in the system from the A level to the major league club were originally drafted by the Twins, including 17 who were signed as undrafted free agents. Over half of those 93 are at the A level (either Beloit or Fort Myers), where nearly the entire rosters are made of recent Twins picks. The full distribution is shown below.

Level (# of draft picks)
Major League (14) - Cuddyer, Hunter, Kubel, Mauer, Miller, Morneau, Slowey, 4 pitchers mentioned above, and 3 undrafted free agents (DePaula, Rincon, Rodriguez)
Rochester, AAA (11) - 1 undrafted free agent
New Britain, AA (18) - 5 undrafted free agents
Fort Myers, A (22) - 3 undrafted free agents
Beloit, A (28) - 5 undrafted free agents

Again, it's notable that players drafted before '02 are not a significant presence in the minors. This is probably a good thing for the organization, as career minor leaguers do very little to help the success of the major league club.

Throughout the system, the Twins draft picks are used as the main source of players for every level. Of course there are those picks that will fall by the wayside on their progression from the lower levels to the top levels, but the Twins have shown the ability to keep enough of their draft picks around so that they form a nucleus around which the upper levels of the organization are built. For an organization with financial restrictions like Minnesota, this an important skill that has no doubt fueled the recent success of the franchise.

This is not a look forward at what kind of draft the Twins are looking to have this year, but through these looks back we can see that the Twins have relied on their draft to provide a large part of their talent pool in the recent history. Thus, it is easy to conclude that many Twins fans will have a vested interest in the results of the upcoming draft.

Series Preview in Blog: Toronto Blue Jays

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Minnesota Twins (22-24) v. Toronto Blue Jays (21-25)

The Twins return home after a nine game road trip, on which they went 4-5. They started by being swept by the Indians before taking two of three from Milwaukee and Texas. Toronto will finish off their own nine game road trip with this series. They are 3-3 thus far, losing 2 of 3 to Philadelphia last weekend and winning 2 of 3 from Baltimore this week. The Blue Jays have a 9-14 record on the road, while the Twins have a slightly better 10-13 record at home. The Blue Jays are currently third in the AL East, 10 games back of the Red Sox and a half game back of the second place Yankees. The Twins remain in fourth place in the central division, 7 games back of Detroit and 2.5 back of third place Chicago.

This has little to do with the Jays, but Happy Birthday to Jason Kubel (Friday). Hopefully someday he will make it off the bench on the "Born on May 25" team.

On to the Jays:

The only thing I don't understand about this list is how Corey Koskie was on this team for a full season and managed to not make a single appearance.

The Jays have shown signs of life recently, but for a while, they looked terrible (I'm sure some of you can relate). That stretch included a nine game losing streak and a stretch of 5-14 baseball. As this interview with Jays manager John Gibbons shows, there's no need to worry he's on top of all the important things. Here's a more serious analysis of some of general manager J. P. Riccardi's moves this season.

The Blue Jays pitchers for the series will be Jesse Litsch (called up on Tuesday), Tomo Ohka, and A. J. Burnett. Saturday's matchup of Ohka vs. Ortiz should be interesting. Ohka was removed from the rotation earlier this month after going 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in May. Saturday marks his return to the rotation after 11 days rest. Burnett has won his last three starts and has been the rock of the rotation in recent times for Toronto. The Twins will not be seeing Roy Halliday this series as he is still recovering from an appendectomy.

Offensively, Lyle Overbay has continued his slow start, which could be cause for concern for Jays fans. You can also add Vernon Wells to that list.

The Blue Jays all-time top 50 has some familiar faces for Twins fans. Specifically #21, #33, and #38. No, I didn't get those numbers wrong, Paul Molitor is really only #38 on that list. Here's the authors defense of that placement.

Finally, while the Jays are here at the Dome, I'm sure that Twins fans will be well behaved. However, if they aren't nice to Vernon Wells, they may get a souvenir out of the deal. More on the story here.

That's it from me, if you find anything interesting, feel free to post it in the comments. Thanks for reading.

Gone Fishing

I'll be out of town for the next week, so there won't be any new postings here. However I have submitted some things elsewhere, so if you're dying to read some of my stuff, check out the following.

A Look Back: Recent Twins Draft History, Part I was posted yesterday. It includes a look at the Twins first round picks over the last fifteen years and some discussion of those prospects.

Series Preview in Blog: Toronto Blue Jays will be posted at Stick and Ball Guy on Friday morning. However I have not written a preview for the White Sox series that starts next week. Check out Round 1 or Round 2 for some Sox links.

A Look Back: Recent Twins Draft History, Part II will be posted next Wednesday (5/30). It's a look at Twins draft picks populating the farm system.

I will post the series preview here when I return, but go read it now before it gets stale. Thanks for reading, and I'll catch you when I get back.

A Look Back: Recent Twins Draft History, Part I

With the Major League Baseball Amateur Draft on the horizon, this is the first of two articles looking at the Twins' most recent drafts. This part looks at the first round picks of the last fifteen years and how they are faring (or have fared) in professional baseball. Next week I will look at the Twins minor leagues and how the draft has been used to stock the Twins system.

In the last 15 years, the Twins have drafted 22 players (including the supplemental first round). Of those 22, they have signed 20 of them (91%). They have drafted 9 pitchers, although recently there has been a larger focus at that position as five of the last eight first round picks have been pitchers. 4 outfielders and 3 catchers have also been drafted in the first round by the Twins.

Ten of these players have already made their major league debut with the Minnesota Twins, while eight more remain in the farm system awaiting their chance. That leaves two players (B. J. Garbe '99 and Ryan Mills '98) who never made it to the major league level after being drafted in the first round by the Twins. Incidentally, The Twins current roster (and disabled list) contains four of their first round picks (Hunter, Cuddyer, Mauer, and Perkins).

Of the ten players who have made it to the bigs, Matt Garza and Adam Johnson were the fastest, reaching the majors in their second season in the Twins organization. The average time from draft to debut was 3.8 years for those ten picks.

To satisfy all your curiosity, here are some words and numbers about each of the Twins first round draft picks in the last 15 years:

	2006 - Chris Parmelee - (20th overall - OF) currently with Beloit (A) Parmelee turned heads with his fast start last year. He hit 8 home runs in 45 games last year at the Rookie level before a late promotion to Beloit. Overall he hit .273/.369/.500 last year which resulted in his being listed as the #94 prospect in Baseball America's top 100 prospects of 2007. So far this year, he's hit .226/.305/.374 at Beloit with two home runs. Some eyebrows have been raised by his high strikeout total (38 SO in 115 AB) but he's only 19 years old, so he's still got plenty of time to develop. His mix of patience and power are the attributes that lead to the Twins selecting him in the first round.
	2005 - Matt Garza - (25th overall - P) currently with Rochester (AAA) - 1 ML season Garza's unbelievably fast rise through the farm system last year caught a lot of attention, and he was ranked #21 in Baseball America's top 100 prospects of 2007. He began last season with Fort Myers and pitched his way to promotions to New Britain and then Rochester, and finally, Minnesota. In nine starts with the Twins, Garza pitched 50 innings, allowing 32 earned runs (5.76 ERA) while striking out 6.8 per nine innings. He began the 2007 season at Rochester and is currently boasting a 3.86 ERA with 8.4 K/9 through his first nine starts. It's only a matter of time until Garza dons a Twins uniform again.
	2005 - Henry Sanchez - (39th overall - 1B) currently with Elizabethton (Rookie), 3rd minor league season Sanchez was drafted out of high school and spent some time at Beloit last year. That stint, combined with his time in rookie ball gives a career line of .211/.274/.351 coming into this year. Sanchez is currently recovering from an injury, and so I couldn't find any stats from this season. It doesn't seem like he's on the fast track right now, but only time will tell.
	2004 - Trevor Plouffe - (20th overall - SS) currently with New Britain (AA), 4th minor league season Drafted out of high school as the first of 5 first-round picks for the Twins in 2004, Plouffe has spent the last two seasons at A level before his promotion this year. In the previous three seasons he has hit .244/.321/.353. So far this season, Plouffe has hit .250/.306/.402 with the uptick in power due mostly to an increased number of doubles (11 2B out of 33 hits). Plouffe's defense has also been improved according to scouts, which adds to the overall optimistic picture for this prospect.
	2004 - Glen Perkins - (22nd overall - P) currently with Minnesota Twins, 2nd ML season After being drafted from the University of Minnesota, Perkins made his debut in the stretch run for the Twins last season and was called up early this season, where he stayed until a recent injury put him on the disabled list. In those two stints, Perkins has 16 appearances, all out of the bullpen, with an ERA of 3.38, a 1.19 WHIP, and 6.75 K/9. In the minors, Perkins moved quickly, never spending more than one year at any level. He started 60 games while posting an ERA of 3.36, a 1.24 WHIP, and 9.63 K/9
	2004 - Kyle Waldrop - (25th overall - P) currently with New Britain (AA), 4th minor league season Waldrop was recently promoted to New Britain after getting off to a good start this year. In eight starts, he averaged 5.5 IP, had an ERA of 2.86 while striking out 41 in 44 innings. His first start at AA also looked good, as Waldrop allowed one earned run in seven innings. Since signing with the Twins, he has spent a year at rookie ball, followed by two years split betwixt Beloit and Fort Myers at the A level. In his minor league career, Waldrop has an ERA of 3.83, a WHIP of 1.21, while maintaining a SO/BB ratio of 4 to 1 and striking out 6.3 batters per 9 innings.
	2004 - Matthew Fox - (35th overall - P) currently with Beloit (A), 3rd minor league season Originally drafted, but not signed, in 2001 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Fox attended the University of Central Florida before being drafted by the Twins. 2007 represents his first season above rookie level due to a injury to his labrum which took his 2005 season. He's only appeared in one game thus far this year as he spent time at extended spring training, but he did pitch a scoreless inning in that appearance.
	2004 - Jay Rainville - (39th overall - P) currently with Fort Myers (A), 3rd minor league season Jay Rainville was drafted out of high school and began with one season at the rookie level, followed by parts of a season with Beloit and Fort Myers. In those two seasons, his ERA was 3.06 and his WHIP was 1.20. He would miss the entire 2006 season with an arm injury before returning this year where he left off, at Fort Myers. Rainville has eight starts this season for the Miracle, he has a 3.22 ERA in those starts with a 1.27 WHIP while averaging 4.5 IP/start.
	2003 - Matt Moses - (21st overall - 3B) currently with Rochester (AAA), 5th minor league season The Twins drafted Moses out of high school, and he spent a little more than a season at each level through the Twins system hitting .261/.323/.402 over the last four seasons. This is his first year at AAA, and he's hitting .244/.264/.341. On a positive note Moses posted his highest home run total last season at New Britain (15, 31.6 AB/HR) which is a good sign for one of the Twins power hitting prospects.
	2002 - Denard Span - (20th overall - OF) currently with Rochester (AAA), 5th minor league season Span has long been tagged as Torii Hunter's successor in centerfield for the Twins. Due to Mr. Hunter, Span hasn't progressed to the majors as quickly as others on this list, but in his four previous seasons in the minors (none above AA), he has hit .288/.359/.346 while stealing 76 bases in about 1600 plate appearances. In his first season at AAA this year, Span is hitting .226/.282/.299 with 10 stolen bases.
	2001 - Joe Mauer - (1st pick overall - C) currently with Minnesota Twins, 4th ML season, .323/.403/.472 Mauer started the season with the Twins in 2004 after the departure of A. J. Pierzynski. Unfortunately, due to injury, he would only appear in 35 games that year. Since then, Mauer has become a hitting machine, he won the batting title last season and posted a career high average (.347) and OBP (.446). Last year, Mauer won numerous accolades, including the Silver Slugger Award, an All-Star selection, and he garnered enough votes to place 6th in the AL MVP race. Mauer is currently on the disabled list with a leg injury but prior to that was still hitting well (.353/.446/.480).
	2000 - Adam Johnson - (2nd overall - P) 2 major league seasons, 10.25 ERA, 2.05 WHIP Johson shot through the minor leagues, reaching the Majors after short stops at A, AA, and AAA in 2001. He would appear in seven games for the major league club including four starts, posting an 8.28 ERA and a 1.8 WHIP. After spending 2002 at AAA, Johnson made another brief appearance with the Twins in 2003, appearing in two games, pitching 1.1 innings and allowing eight runs. After another season in the minors, Johnson was released by Twins in 2005 and signed by the Oakland A's. After a couple of seasons in the Oakland farm system, Johnson is out of professional baseball.
	1999 - B. J. Garbe - (5th overall - OF) 6 minor league seasons Garbe was drafted out of high school by the Twins and spent two years each at the A and AA levels of the Twins organization. He hit .218/.298/.294 in those four seasons before he was traded in 2004 for Pat Borders. Garbe spent time in the Mariners and Marlins farm systems until 2006, but I couldn't find a current team for him this season.
	1998 - Ryan Mills - (6th overall - P) 7 minor league seasons Mills was originally drafted by the Yankees in the 13th round of the 1995 draft, but instead attended Arizona State University until the Twins drafted him in the first round. Mills would spend about two years at each level of the minors (as a starter at A and AA; and in the bullpen at AAA) but didn't excel at any of them, as he posted a record of 17-40 with an ERA of 5.79 and a WHIP of 1.73 while walking 5.9 batters per nine innings. After 2004, the Twins released Mills and he hasn't resurfaced anywhere else that I can find.
	1997 - Michael Cuddyer - (9th overall - SS/1B/2B/3B/OF) currently with Minnesota Twins, 7th ML season, .269/.341/.454 Cuddyer had his breakout year last year when he hit 41 doubles and 24 home runs with a .284/.362/.504 line. It's probably not coincidental that last season marked the first time Cuddyer played more than 95 games at any one position (142 games in right field). He made his debut in 2001, but spent significant time in the minors each of the next three seasons.
	1997 - Matt LeCroy - (50th overall - C) currently with Rochester (AAA) - 7 ML seasons The Mets drafted LeCroy initially in 1994, but he went to Clemson University instead for three seasons before the Twins drafted him. LeCroy made his debut with the Twins in 2000 and played six seasons with the Twins before he was granted free agency after the 2005 season. In those six seasons, LeCroy hit .275/.346/.460 with the Twins while averaging about 240 plate appearances per year. His best year was 2003 (coincidentally the year he got the most at-bats) when he hit 17 home runs while posting a line of .287/.342/.490. After a year in Washington, LeCroy returned to the Twins in the off-season as a free agent and is currently hitting .197/.256/.291 at AAA Rochester.
	1996 - Travis Lee - (2nd overall - 1B - did not sign) 9 year ML career, .256/.337/.408
	1995 - Mark Redman - (13th overall - P) currently with Atlanta Braves, 9th ML season Redman spent time with the Twins in three seasons from 1999 to 2001. However, the only consistent action he saw was in 2000, when he started 24 games and posted an ERA of 4.76, 7.0 K/9, and a 1.41 WHIP, which was good enough to place him 6th in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Those numbers only differ from his career numbers in the frequency of strikeouts (5.5 career K/9, 4.75 ERA, 1.42 WHIP). He was traded to the Detroit Tigers at the deadline of the next year for Todd Jones. After leaving the Twins, Redman has been named an All-Star once ('06 with Kansas City) and won a World Series ('03 with Florida).
	1994 - Todd Walker - (8th overall - 2B) currently with Oakland Athletics, 12th ML season Walker made his debut with the Twins in 1996 and spent four seasons with the Twins, including a spectacular 1998 season where he posted career highs in BA (.316), OBP (.372) and OPS+ (119). In his Twins tenure, he hit .285/.341/.413 which corresponds with his career line of .289/.348/.435. He was traded to Colorado for another Todd, Todd Sears, in July of 2000.
	1993 - Torii Hunter - (20th overall - OF) currently with Minnesota Twins, 11th ML season, .271/.324/.469 Hunter has patrolled center field for the Twins for the better part of the last nine seasons. In that time, his best performance to date was the 2002 season when he hit .289/.334/.524, won a start in the All-Star game, and came in 6th in the AL MVP voting. This year Hunter is demolishing all those numbers hitting an astronomical .318/.353/.611 so far. Hunter has also won six Gold Gloves and has been widely regarded as one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game.
	1993 - Jason Varitek - (21st overall - C - did not sign) currently with Boston Red Sox, 11th ML season, .269/.349/.449 2-time All-Star ('03, '05), Silver Slugger (2005), World Series (2004)
	1992 - Dan Serafini - (26th overall - P) six major league seasons Serafini had a six year career in the major leagues starting with three seasons with the Twins from 1996 to 1998 before his contract was purchased by the Chicago Cubs. With the Twins Serafini appeared in 35 games and for a couple stretches filled in as a starter. He started 14 games, posting a 5.45 ERA while averaging 5.1 innings per start with a 1.57 WHIP and 4.7 K/9 in those games. Overall with the Twins, Serafini posted a 5.88 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP.

Enormous thanks to TwinsCards.com, which is where I found all these images.

Series Preview in Blog: Texas Rangers

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Minnesota Twins (20-23) @ Texas Rangers (17-27)

The Texas Rangers have just finished a road trip which took them to Tampa Bay, where they were swept in three games, and Houston, where they won two of three including a rout on Sunday. The Twins are finishing a road trip which started in Cleveland, where they were swept in three games, then to Milwaukee, where they won two of three, but not the game that I attended. The Rangers and Twins both reside in fourth place in their respective divisions, the Rangers are 9.5 games back of the Angels, while the Twins remain 7 back of the Tigers and Indians. The Rangers are 10-10 at home, and the Twins have an identical 10-10 record on the road. Seeing that, I predict a series split.

On to the Rangers:

The Rangers have played for the last couple years at Ameriquest Field, but they have terminated the agreement with Ameriquest, so the field is once again known as The Ballpark in Arlington. Whatever the field is called, one of the Rangers' beat writers can see a current Twins outfielder playing half his games there in the near future.

The Twins will face Vicente Padilla on Monday, who hasn't had much success this year (Rangers are 1-8 in games that he starts) Other starters for the series for the Rangers are Kameron Loe and Robinson Tejeda. Tejeda had a very impressive start last time out, no-hitting the Astros for the first five innings. If he can extend a no-hitter for a complete game he will add his name to this list.

Texas is currently 10 games under .500 for this season. When they have started the first 41 games with a losing record, they haven't been able to dig their way out. But, even if the Rangers don't win them all, at least they're a bunch of nice guys.

It's been an up and down season for the Rangers thus far, and, though there is some optimism out there, the general consensus is that this is probably a rebuilding year. Then the question becomes, do they have the right men (Ron Washington as manager and John Daniels as GM) for the job? It seems as though one of those two may be on thin ice if things don't improve. Personally, I like these thoughts from Washington about first pitch swinging, nothing groundbreaking, but it certainly adresses the point.

With any rebuilding season, attention has turned to the farm system. I think this is pretty interesting, a calendar of the probable pitchers for each day in the minor leagues. Given the Rangers recent history developing pitchers from within, it may not be as useful of a reference as it first appears.

Trade rumors have also followed the Rangers and their inauspicious start. Eric Gagne has been mentioned, but the most popular target of trade rumors, third baseman Hank Blalock, has just been put on the 60 day DL while he undergoes surgery.

Rangers Trivia: The Rangers pitchers hold the record for the highest batting average in a single season by an American League pitching staff. What was their average, and in what year? (Link for the answer)

On Assignment: Brewers 6, Twins 5

As I lounged about this weekend, an urgent message suddenly appeared in my inbox from the headquarters of the Minnesota Sports Guys conglomerate. I was chosen to attend a Twins game this weekend at Miller Park. Despite the fact that Ramon Ortiz would be pitching, and that I would be wading into hostile territory with which I was not familiar (my first visit to Miller Park), I felt duty-bound to do my best. Following is my report. (Keep in mind, I am not a professional picture taker, I'm barely an amateur, so there's not much and it may not be high quality, but I'll try to fill in with witty commentary where appropriate)

Yep, that's the place. We (me and my wife) exited off the freeway and were pretty much right by the front gate, which we thought boded well. After another 20 minutes of driving we reached our parking spot and made the long trek back toward the field (which is essentially in the middle of an enormous parking lot).

Also, you may notice that the roof was closed. No outdoor baseball for us.

We found our seats pretty easily (after procuring some cheesy fries in a helmet). This was the view from section 430 (the MNSG budget apparently isn't all that large). The place was pretty well packed with a reasonable representation of Twins fans. And I should point out that the Brewers fans that I met were very well behaved, before and after the game (I probably would have ranted about them if they weren't, so I have to give them credit).

In the above picture, the Brewers had just walked Jason Bartlett to get to Ramon Ortiz in the big 4-run fourth.

At this point my wife pointed out that TC, the Twins mascot, was in attendance, hanging out with Bernie Brewer on the infamous slide. (Emphasis mine, there were no giant purple arrows at the game). Shortly after this half inning finished, Bernie and TC disappeared from the slide and TC wasn't seen again. In an interesting parallel, the Brewers outscored the Twins 6 to 1 for the remainder of the game. Perhaps Bernie took matters into his own hands? I know the Twins policy is not to negotiate for hostages, but it had to be weighing on their minds.

Ramon Ortiz plots his next big inning (alternatively, he frets about the plight of TC).

It wouldn't be Milwaukee without a Sausage Race. Here they come, around the homeplate area, I had the bratwurst in a friendly wager with my wife (that's him in the green hat at the back of the pack. grrrrrrr)

It was Sunday, so it was a relay (as anyone who's witnessed a sausage race knows). The "little weenies" ran the last leg and the bratwurst made a valiant comeback to finish second. Unfortunately the wife's pick, the polish, won easily, so I lost that bet (and no, I won't tell you what the wager was, it's not important).

I had a picture of Ramon Ortiz, and here's a picture of Pat Neshek. I didn't get a picture of Dennys Reyes because I was covering my eyes in horror the whole time he was on the field. He trotted in from the bullpen and I was desperately trying to convince myself that Juan Rincon had become a lefty. But Dennys laughed at my pitiful attempts to deny him as he coughed up a run to give the Brewers the lead.

Neshek was awesome, after getting two outs on two pitches in the 7th, my wife predicted three strikeouts on 9 pitches in the 8th. She was pretty close, Neshek got two strikeouts and a pop-up on 10 pitches. Between this and the polish sausage thing (plus she got the attendance game right, too) I was getting a little freaked out.

Damn.

I had a good time, I always enjoy a baseball game, and this one was close enough to be entertaining throughout. I got to give Cuddyer a standing ovation for his home run, and I got to curse the offense for failing to capitalize on a leadoff double in a tie game. The whole range of emotions in one afternoon. I really felt the Twins should have pulled this one out, but I can be content with 2 of 3 on the road in a series. That's it from me, I'm off to sharpen my photojournalism skills, thanks for reading!

Series Preview in Blog: Milwaukee Brewers

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After an extremely busy week, me and my better half are heading up to Milwaukee for the series finale with the Brewers. We have tickets in the upper deck, so no doubt we are entered into the Brewer’s fancy new database. It will be my first trip to Miller Park, although I’m beginning to wonder if going to watch the Twins is going to be all that cathartic. Ah well, it will be nice to get out to the ballpark anyway. I’m not sure that I know exactly what all this is about but I’ll try to behave myself so as not to raise the ire of the Brewers faithful.

Minnesota Twins (18-22) @ Milwaukee Brewers (26-15)

The Twins are happy to see the AL Central in their rearview mirror for now. In their last three series, all against AL Central opponents, the Twins are 2-7. The Brewers have been struggling a bit as of late after their hot start. They lost 5 of 7 on their recent road trip to New York and Philadelphia. The Brewers lead the NL Central by 5.5 games over Houston which is a lead that has actually shrunk from an impressive 8 games earlier in the week. The Twins remain in fourth place in the AL Central, 7 games back of Cleveland (let’s not talk about how close they were before this week). The Twins are 8-9 on the road (0-3 on this road trip) while the Brewers are a solid 16-5 at Miller Park.

On to the Brew Crew:

First off, the number of links to this site are staggering, so if the Brewers make the playoffs, you may want to stay away from any Brewers fans for a bit.

If you’re nostalgic for the old Brewers, here are a couple of petitions to bring back the old logo and Bernie’s beer mug to Miller Park. Although, the old Brewers weren’t all that good, in fact one of them, Dale Sveum, has earned the distinction of being named the captain of the Worst. Team. Ever.

This series marks the beginning of interleague play where the Twins and the Brewers have been designated as each other’s interleague “rival”. While the Twins may not necessarily be the most heated rival, Brewers fans still look forward to this series.

An interview with Rick Braun, the beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, about the Brewers hot start and what they need to due to sustain their success. The hot start has plenty of people debating whether they are for real or not. Here’s a point - counterpoint argument on exactly that topic. Their hot start has them dreaming big though, no, not about the playoffs, about an SI cover. I don’t have the data on how long it’s been since the Brewers were on the cover, so no rehash of last entry’s trivia question. I do know that Milwaukee hasn’t won the World Series as the Brewers, the last time a Milwaukee team won the World Series was 1957 as the Braves. Since then Milwaukee has been laboring under the curse of the North Shore Line. (incidentally, this is the only post I’ve linked to thus far with a tag of “ferroequinology”)

Of course, just because they’re off to a good start doesn’t mean that Ned Yost gets a free pass as the manager. Plenty of people dislike his bullpen management, although you have to admit that he will defend his players.

Prince Fielder is chasing teammate J. J. Hardy for the lead on the Brewers (and the National League) in homeruns so far this year. Maybe a change in his theme song is all he needs to catch up. These two Brewers represent part of the future of the organization, but there are some very good prospects waiting in the wings. One of the better known prospects of the Brewer’s past was Brooks Kieschnick who tried to make a career as both a hitter and a pitcher. Here’s a look back at his career.

Gardenhire has been warning us that this day would come, but here’s an example where the emergency third catcher played a pivotal role in the outcome of the game.

Finally, maybe the Twins best hope for a victory is that the Brewers could be preoccupied by their upcoming brush with fame.

Series Preview in Blog: Cleveland Indians (Round 2)

This post is also published at Stick and Ball Guy's site. Stop by and check out what SBG Nation has to say.

Minnesota Twins (18-19) @ Cleveland Indians (21-14)

The Twins struggled through another week losing two of three to a couple of AL Central opponents at home. This series marks the beginning of a nine-game road trip for the Twins which will take them to Milwaukee and Texas. The Indians got off to a scorching April, reviewed here, before their recently finished road trip against the Orioles, Angels, and A's in which they lost six of ten including a heartbreaking walkoff loss on Sunday to the A's. The Indians are currently second in the division, one game behind the Tigers and four games ahead of the fourth place Twins. The Indians have won nine of their last ten at Jacobs Field, and are 11-3 as the home team (9-2 at the Jake). The Twins are 8-6 on the road so far this season.

This marks the Twins first journey to Jacobs Field this season. It's always been a fan favorite, as this review of the stadium experience shows.

On to the Indigenous Peoples:

Once again, I bring you the Cleveland Indians roster as Homestar Runner characters. I don't know why I find this fascinating. I just like any system that equates Grady Sizemore and Jason Grilli through a character named Pom-Pom.

The Indians front office, led by GM Mark Shapiro, has long been in the sabermetrics camp. They cemented that reputation by the hiring of Baseball Prospectus's Keith Woolner, the inventer of the VORP statistic, as their Manager of Baseball Research and Analysis. Shapiro's sabermetrics influence can be seen in the team's emphasis on on-base percentage over batting average. Speaking of Shapiro's fingerprints, here are rundowns of his best moves as a GM, and his worst moves as well.

Indians trivia: Grady Sizemore recently appeared solo on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Before him, who was the last Cleveland Indian to be afforded that honor? (+10 to the first provider of the correct answer)

That cover, and a couple of player ranking articles released recently have occasioned some comment in the Indians blogosphere. Here's a look at the AL Central team's showing in those rankings. Of course with the drafting of Brady Quinn by the Browns, there are a couple of dreamboats on the Cleveland sports scene. Depending on who you ask, there are plenty of good-looking ballplayers on the Indians alone.

Pitching for the Indians this series will be Paul Byrd, who hasn't allowed more than four runs in his last five starts, Carsten Charles Sabathia, who lost his first decision of the season in the Oakland series, and Fausto Carmona, who has been the surprise of the Indians team so far this season. Carmona has gotten an extended look due to the abdomial injury to Jake Westbrook, and he has certainly made an impression. In fact, when Westbrook returns, the Tribe will have to decide which of their young starters to send back to AAA. The other candidate for demotion is Jeremy Sowers, who has struggled after a breakout season last year. Here's some analysis of what's going wrong this year. It seems like a classic case of a low strikeout pitcher whose batted balls aren't finding gloves at the same rate.

The bullpen has been very much improved over last year, in fact, as of May 9, they were ranked in the top ten of baseball by Beyond the Box Score. Of course, they're still trailing two other teams from the AL Central, including the Twins. Not everyone in the bullpen has found their way however, Jason Davis was recently designated for assignment and traded to Seattle for the infamous Player to be Named Later (that guy just can't stay on one team!). This marks the end of the road for a pitcher whose upside never really materialized in Cleveland.

For a team that has been labeled as "up and coming" for a couple of years, it's satisfying for their fans to finally see the team living up to those expectations (at least for a month and a half). They've faced some adversity from the beginning, from snowouts in April to the bizzare situation where the umpires put a run on the board two innings after it scored. Some think that adversity has worked to bring the clubhouse together. Others point to veteran leadership of the sometimes unsung heroes. Others point to the scuffle with the Blue Jays. Regardless of what caused it, you can't say the Indians have had an unevenful beginning to the 2007 season.

Finally, I found several references to some terrible Indians commercials which are dominating the airwaves in Ohio. Here are some better ideas, many of which got a genuine chuckle out of me.

Series Preview in Blog: Detroit Tigers (Round 2)

This post is also published at Stick and Ball Guy's site. Stop by and check out what SBG Nation has to say.

Well you've all been very patient, and, since you've been so well behaved, I'll make good on my promise to you from last time. Here's one of the many hilarious hijinks that ensue when a Twins fan and a Tigers fan share the same office. The baseball season had just started, and I was feeling the need to remind our poor misguided Tigers supporter that he had lost, in spectacular fashion, the friendly wager we had agreed to the previous year. When he stepped out of the office for a moment early one morning, I siezed the opportunity to change his desktop wallpaper to the following image:

Now, I have to take a moment to explain how the email system works for our offices. There are the standard person to person emails, but also the "list-serve" emails that go out to the whole group. When one sends an email to the "list-serve", all subsequent replies to this email are also sent out to the whole group via the same mechanism. No doubt, many of you can see where this is going. Our erstwhile Tigers fan returned to his desk to find his desktop altered and he was so enraged that he sent an email intended for me that contained only two words, the first of which I won't repeat here, the second of which was 'you'. Of course he had replied to an email that I had sent the entire group, and so when everyone (including our boss) came into work that morning, they had a little bit of a surprise waiting for them in their inbox. Fortunately, the Michiganite realized his mistake immediately and sent a preemptive apology shortly after the initial email. Since there were no serious consequences of this (other than a reprimand from the boss) I have to say that this caper worked out almost as well as I could have possibly hoped.

At least my co-worker's email was spelled correctly (from Lookout Landing)

After this series, the Twins don't play Detroit again until the end of June, so I'll have to instigate something else by then so I can relay it on to you all.

Minnesota Twins (17-17) v. Detroit Tigers (21-12)

The Tigers come to the Metrodome having won 9 of their last 10, including an eight game winning streak that started with Brandon Inge's walkoff HR versus Jesse Crain and was snapped on Wednesday. That stretch included sweeps of the Orioles and Royals as well as their series victory over Seattle earlier this week. The Twins have not been as hot recently, losing their last three series to the Devil Rays and the Sox of both colors. Detroit currently holds a half-game lead over Cleveland in the AL Central while the Twins are 4.5 back in fourth place. It would be great to see the Twins scratch out some victories here and stay close to the top in the division. The Tigers are 11-5 on the road, and have won 4 straight outside of Michigan. The Twins are 9-11 at home and need a sweep here to get above .500 at the Dome before their 9-game road trip begins on Tuesday.

On to the Bengals:

First off, there's been a lot of discussion of Joel Zumaya due to his upcoming lengthy stint on the disabled list. Not that he asked, but I would suggest he use that free time brushing up on his thespian skills.

Everyone weighed in on the Zumaya injury. First of all, Zumaya hasn't pitched that well thus far this year, so the impact is less than it might have been at some other point in time. Of course, this reminds everyone of Zumaya's injury last year, supposedly caused by the video game "Guitar Hero". It seems unlikely that he made the same mistake twice, but there are other video game options out there. Here's a rundown of who will be taking his spot in the bullpen while he's out. For the coolest illustrations of what possible injuries, this is the place to go.

The last link in that paragraph is to Roar of the Tigers, which has some of the best graphics that accompany each entry, I couldn't decide on one to add to this post, so make sure you check some of them out. There is also a photojournal of Roar of the Tigers operator Samara spending the day at Comerica Park watching the Twins and Tigers in their series finale earlier this season. (included is a pretty good picture of Torii's fat lip)

Here is a rundown of the entire Tigers team after 30 games. First the pitchers, then the hitters. If you're wondering who the "Black Hole of Suck" is, it's this guy. Curtis Granderson got good reviews in that article, and some Tiger's fans are beginning to compare him to other elite center fielders in the AL Central. Also hitting well thus far is Magglio Ordonez, who apparently isn't the superstitious type. After a monster April with his long flowing locks growing ever more untamable, he cut his hair last week. This was a big enough news event to occasion some comment and even made it into this illustrious compendium of baseball writing (no doubt a highlight for Mags).

"Pudge Rodriguez is one of the most touchy-feely catchers in the majors. More than anyone playing today, when he goes out to the mound, he’s likely to be grabbin’ at his pitchers. And because he’s Pudge and he’s been in the league for 60 years, he does it right."
-Samara Pearlstein @ Roar of the Tigers

Even disregarding his pitcher handling (get it?) prowess, there isn't really a capable backup for Pudge right now (Mike Rabelo has little to no bat). What will the Tigers do when Pudge is gone? Right now it doesn't look so good in the farm system.

The Twins will face Mike Maroth, who equaled Santana last time they met, Chad Durbin, and Jeremy Bonderman, who has been suffering from Brad Radke disease thus far this season (Opponents are hitting .424/.441/.697 in the first inning).

Speaking of the first inning, the Tigers are saving their excitement for either very early or very late in games. They are scoring more in the first and ninth than they did last year, and giving up more runs in the first and ninth as well. So if the Twins can just get through that first inning (right, Mr. Ortiz?) they should be alright.

Finally, here's one blogger's attempt to equate the Detroit Tigers roster with the characters of Homestar Runner. If you're not familiar with Homestar Runner (in which case, I'm with you) here's a reference, so now you can appreciate the jokes.

The Streak: Torii Hunter

Torii Hunter brought a 21-game hitting streak into last night's game against the White Sox. Javier Vasquez kept him hitless through his first three at-bats, but he extended the streak to 22 with his game-tying RBI single in the eighth off of David Aardsma. Hunter has always been known as a streaky hitter but this hitting streak is by far the longest of his career.

The streak started off on April 11 against the Yankees when Hunter went 2 for 4 with two doubles. Since then he has extended the streak nine times in his first at-bat of the game, while he has only waited until his last at-bat twice to get a hit. This streak includes Hunter getting hit in the mouth in Kansas City in his first at-bat of that game and having to leave. Since he did not have an official at-bat, the streak stayed alive. Thus, Hunter has the statistical oddity of having a 22-game hitting streak over 23 games.

Over the course of the streak, he has put up a line of .378/.406/.678 while the rest of the Twins have hit .274/.335/.370. Obviously Hunter has been responsible for a large portion of the Twins power over the last month. In fact, Hunter has almost a quarter of the extra base hits (17 for Hunter, 60 for everyone else) in less than 10% of the plate appearances. Hunter has hit five homeruns during his streak, the rest of the Twins have mustered only ten. Hunter's BABIP is an astronomical .426 in this stretch which is as impressive as it is unsustainable. (Derek Jeter had the highest in the majors last season at .391). Over his career Torii's BABIP has always hovered around the league average, and I would be surprised if it doesn't level off and return to that point as the season goes on.

During the streak Hunter is hitting .314 (11 of 35) with runners on base and slugging .600 with 4 doubles and 2 homeruns, which is pretty good under normal circumstances but actually represents a dropoff from his overall hitting over this period. This is probably why his Win Probability Added (WPA) during this streak isn't as large as you might think, in 22 games, he actually has a negative WPA (-3.7%). Still, he has certainly come up with some big hits, including the game-tying RBI last night and a grand slam off of Jeff Weaver in Seattle.

As I metioned in the introduction, Hunter has always been known as a streaky hitter. Since 2002, Hunter has 3 (now 4) hitting streaks of 10 games or more. Most notable of these are the two streaks in May of 2006 which were separated by a single 0 for 4 game. Comparing Hunter's current streak to these others, I feel comfortable saying that we haven't seen Hunter hitting the ball this well for this long in the last five years. Getting on base is another matter, the other streaks all seemed to correspond with a nearly 1:1 SO/BB ratio, but clearly Hunter has been his free-swinging self during this streak. This actually worries me a little bit, because if and when this streak ends, if Torii goes into one of his cold spins, he doesn't appear interested in working the count and being at least a reasonably patient hitter, which could bode for an especially difficult time ahead. Alternatively, he's just seeing the ball so well right now that he is best served by going up there hacking, and once he cools off a bit, some patience will result. Having seen Hunter's approach at the plate for several years, I hope it's the latter, but I fear it's the former.

STREAK	GM	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SO	BB	BA	OBP	SLG
4/11 to 5/8/07	22	90	34	12	0	5	17	3	.378	.406	.678
5/3 to 5/13/06	10	39	17	4	0	2	7	5	.436	.500	.692
5/15 to 5/27/06	11	40	14	2	0	1	7	7	.350	.438	.475
9/7 to 9/20/04	11	40	15	3	0	2	8	6	.375	.468	.600

Of course, the longer Hunter keeps this amazing pace going, the better for the Twins. In the four streaks outlined above the Twins record is 32-22 (.593). That is certainly a pace that Twins fans could live with given some of the struggles thus far this season. Enjoy it while it lasts, hopefully we'll see a couple more long hot streaks from Hunter this year. After all, it is a contract year.

[UPDATE:] - Gleeman makes the point today that he thinks hitting streaks are a bit overrated, and I think some of the points I made above bear that out. I'd rather see Hunter hit lights out with guys on base and have some hitless games than extend his hitting streak with a meaningless infield single (like he did in the Red Sox series). It was nice to see that both Gleeman and I took note of the SO/BB discrepancy in this current stretch.

I thought it would be interesting to look at Hunter during one of his patented "hot streaks". But it turns out that maybe he's not exactly carrying the team on his back (witness the high SO total and the negative WPA).

Series Preview in Blog: Chicago White Sox (Round 2)

This post is also published at Stick and Ball Guy's site. Stop by and check out what SBG Nation has to say.

Minnesota Twins (16-15) v. Chicago White Sox (14-14)

The Twins in the last week have struggled, losing two consecutive series, first in Tampa, then at home to the Red Sox. The White Sox lost five in a row before winning their last two games in Anaheim. Currently, the Twins and White Sox sit third and fourth in the AL Central, 4 and 4.5 games back of Cleveland respectively. The Twins are 8-9 at home so far this year, while the Sox are 9-7 on the road.

words to live by

I came across this roundtable discussion of what the Twins should do with Torii Hunter that involved everybody from a Twins fan to a Sox fan to a bunch of AL bloggers. Check it out to get some others perspectives on our perennial Gold Glove winner.

On to the South Siders:

This is not for the weak of heart, I'm not even sure I should even passing this along, but Hawk Harrelson has a blog. Does this qualify as a sign of the apocalypse?

We'll start off by revisiting one of the stories from last time. In April, people weren't exactly sold on the Darin Erstad signing. Palehose 7 still hasn't let up, lots of skewering going on there.

The White Sox may have had one too many outfielders to begin the season, and Brian Anderson found himself to be the odd man out as he was sent to AAA Charlotte. His demotion didn't catch too many people by surprise. Considering Anderson's struggles last year to get comfortable, some people in the blogosphere feel like he's not getting a fair chance to prove himself in the major leagues. Here's a roundup of his past and future with the White Sox.



The Sox haven't had a successful season thus far, mostly due to their lack of offense. The hitting coach is starting to take some heat. In fact, nearly every Sox blog I visited had at least one entry about the hitting coach and the offensive struggles.

The Twins beat John Danks in his debut back in April. He's had some quality outings but fans are wondering whether their looking at a youngster finding his groove, or an overrated prospect. Other pitching notes include the struggles of Matt Thornton, and one bloggers plea for John Garland's consideration for a Gold Glove.

This has been pointed out before, but Palehose 7 hits the nail on the head with this strip.

And, finally, if you ever needed proof that AJ loves to get booed, he spells it out for you.

Series Preview in Blog: Boston Red Sox

This post is also published at Stick and Ball Guy's site. Stop by and check out what SBG Nation has to say.

Minnesota Twins (15-13) v. Boston Red Sox (18-9)

The Twins return home after a .500 road trip in which they won 2 of 3 from Detroit and lost 2 of 3 to Tampa Bay. The Red Sox won 2 of 3 in New York last weekend, then split a two game set with Oakland before winning a makeup game with Seattle on Thursday night. The Red Sox currently sit 5.5 games ahead of second place Toronto and Tampa Bay in the AL East while the Twins remain in third place in the Central 3.5 back of the Indians. The Twins are 7-7 at home in 2007, while the Sox are 9-5 on the road. Since the beginning of time the Twins are 278-266 against the Red Sox (160-112 at home)

On to the Red Stockings:

First off, Jonathan Papelbon blew his first save of the year on Tuesday, and given his amazing success thus far in his career, his failure has been the occasion of some comment. You have to admit it was odd that it was the bottom of the A's lineup that finally got to him. For those in charge of the music videos here at the WGOM, there are some real winners in that last link, don't say I didn't warn you. Here is some analysis of whether Papelbon has been as lights out as his reputation, or whether his legend has already outgrown reality. Also out of the bullpen is the April Rookie of the Month, Hideki Okajima, and my only question about him is, what is he looking at?

The Red Sox, playing on the East Coast, are the subject of their fair share of media exposure, especially when they line up against the Yankees. Some fans tire of that circus quickly, but they still revel in any Yankees failure.

Speaking of media coverage, Manny Ramirez and his "Manny being Manny" antics are always a favorite topic. Even given all his quirks, I think this may be going a bit far. Some people have noticed that Manny may be showing signs of slowing this year, but in his last 4 games he's 8-17 with 2 HR. For everything you wanted to know about Manny's intangibles, here's the scouting report.

The only position where I saw any controversy was at second base where youngster Dustin Pedroia is hitting .172/.294/.224 thus far and his backup Alex Cora has been hitting the ball well (.345/.406/.724). Many still advocate allowing Pedroia to find his stroke while playing everyday, and indeed the coaching staff says they have no intention of platooning the two second basemen.

The Twins will face Tim Wakefield, Julian Tavares, and Curt Schilling, owner of probably the most well known blog written by a current MLB player, 38 pitches. I honestly hadn't checked it out at all before putting this together, but I did read some of the Q&A sessions which yielded some interesting nuggets. For instance the dynamic betwixt a starter and a reliever who blew a lead is the kind of thing I find fascinating. Schilling, also responded through his blog to Gary Thorne's comments about the famous bloody sock. That was a short-lived controversy but it did raise the question, why do people love to hate Curt Schilling? (the other article that's referred to in the previous link is here if you're interested)

Theo Epstein was heralded as a genius when he stepped in as the GM and built a world championship team, but now people are starting to ask, "What have you done for me lately?" In Epstein's defense, he has made some pretty good moves to build the farm system, especially developing pitching prospects. However, I thought the article had a decidedly optimistic view of the Matsuzaka bidding and signing. I'm not going to really touch on Daisuke Matsuzaka this time around, but as far as the gyroball question goes, I've heard from the only expert that matters, so I'm a believer.

Finally, David Ortiz has to be acknowledged as one of the best hitters in baseball, it's no surprise that he made the Red Sox fans "all-beloved team". Once his career is over he may just have a career in acting. If you haven't seen the Sportscenter commercial with Ortiz and Jorge Posada, I strongly urge you to check it out. Additionally, there is this one with Brian Urlacher. Both were entertaining.

OTHER RED SOX BLOGS:
Literally hundreds, check out the blogroll at www.fenwayfanatics.com for a pretty good idea.