Series Preview in Blog: Kansas City Royals (Round 3)

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I'm not sure I should even be doing this preview. I've seen what happens to people who try to cover the Royals. If Emil Brown asks about me, I was never here.

Minnesota Twins (53-51) vs. Kansas City Royals (47-57)

The Twins have been alternating series wins and losses since the break. Hopefully they avoid regressing against the Royals since they finished their road trip by winning two of three from Cleveland. The Royals enter the Dome on a four game winning streak, having swept three games from the Rangers in Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are 23-26 on the road, while the Twins are 28-24 at home this season. As I mentioned in this weekend's preview, the Twins should get used to the Royals, because they will be seeing a lot of them in the next 42 games (13 against KC). Hopefully they can put some distance betwixt themselves and KC, because the Twins are actually currently closer to the last place Royals than they are to the second-place Indians.

The Royals are keeping pace with the White Sox, trying to finish the season above the AL Central cellar for the first time since '03. When your team has been struggling for as long as KC, it's enough for some cautious optimism. A big reason for the optimism is the young talent in the Royals batting order. Billy Butler (.315/.357/.483) and Alex Gordon (.302/.347/.464 in June/July) have been hitting the ball well. Even though they may not be part of the AL Central elite just yet, this piece on Mark Teahan's struggles shows they know what it takes to compete in this division. A quote:

These are not the kind of numbers that even an average corner outfielder/infielder can expect to keep a job with.

Now if you'll excuse me, that one is just sitting on a tee, waiting for someone to take a mighty swing...

Mark Teahan - .280/.353/.398, 5 HR, 29 XBH in 430 PA
Twins at 3B - .231/.303/.322, 4 HR, 22 XBH in 420 PA
Twins in LF - .235/.286/.377, 11 HR, 30 XBH in 406 PA

Kansas City recently called up Ryan Braun to help out in the bullpen. I think they just waited until interleague play was over to avoid the confusion if he were brought in to face Milwaukee's rookie third baseman Ryan Braun. Of course that confusion is nothing compared to what must have happened to John Buck(?) right before this.



Starting pitchers for this series will be Scott Baker agai ---OW!!---

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Emil Brown is my favorite baseball player. That is all.

Series Preview in Blog: Cleveland Indians (Round 3)

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Minnesota Twins (51-50) @ Cleveland Indians (59-43)

The Twins look to notch their first win this season against Cleveland in a three game weekend series on the road. If they don't get that elusive win this season, it doesn't matter too much. First of all, the Twins have essentially played themselves out of the playoff picture, going 2-7 over their last three series including sweeps at the hands of Detroit and Toronto. Secondly, they will get plenty more chances against this Indians team. In fact, their next 14 games, and 26 of their next 45, (58%) are evenly split against Cleveland and Kansas City. So get used to these guys, because we're going to see a lot of them. The Indians have been playing .500 since the break, losing 3 of 4 in their most recent series against Boston to start their current homestand. They remain in second place in the AL Central, 1.5 games back of Detroit. They have been very good at home, only the Angels and Brewers have fewer home losses than the Indians 35-18 record. The Twins, meanwhile, need a weekend sweep to get back to .500 on the road from their current 23-26 mark.

If you happen to be reading this in Cleveland, and are planning on going to the games, you need to read these first. Mistake by the Lake has all the info you could want on the parking and concessions at Jacobs Field. I love the scatterplot breakdown of parking price versus walking distance. If you're looking for something to do after the game, if you can somehow make your way into the clubhouse, you could participate in a baseball video game tournament. Alternatively, you could befriend Grady Sizemore and tag along on his trips to Las Vegas. If you're more laid back than that, you could just ask Sizemore where to find the local whiffle ball games. The commercials here aren't quite awkward enough to be uproariously funny, but I did enjoy the argument about ghost runners.

The Indians have been very proactive this season in signing their big-name free agents before they hit the open market. Manager Eric Wedge and designated hitter Travis Hafner are the most recent to sign extensions. After signing his extension, Wedge went right out and gave an exciting preview of what to expect in years to come. With Hafner in place, here's a look at what the Indians of the future will look like. Actually, they look an awful lot like the Indians of right now. Knowing that Democrats are much more likely to favor the designated hitter rule, wouldn't it have made more sense for Hafner to sign in a blue state (preferably one that doesn't have an AL Central team)? On the flip side of the coin, could there be the possibility that Twins fans, soured on the DH concept by the likes of Jason Tyner and Garrett Jones, will exhibit a swing to the conservative side of the political spectrum?

While we're on a political note, I found it interesting that the Indians developmental academy in the Dominican Republic has began to require that its prospects attend a secondary education program and pursue high school degrees. Even more interesting is that Cleveland is one of the first organizations to do so.

From the future of the Indians to the past, here are a couple of stories. One concerns the career of Larry Doby, the first African American player in the American League. The other is a real interesting story about former Indians oufielder Dave Gallagher's debut playing behind his idol Steve Carlton.

Lastly, with the Twins falling out of the race, if they don't turn things around this weekend, I may find myself joining the fan-club with the most ingenious nickname I've heard in a while. That's right, I may become one of R-Gark's Aardvarks.

Inconsistent Offense?

The Twins just completed a series in which they scored five runs in three games while being swept by the Blue Jays. In my searches for the Series Preview in Blog, I came across this article about the inconsistency of the Jays offense in comparison to some other teams. The Twins were one of the more inconsistent offenses mentioned in the study. The author doesn't delve into cause and effect with his numbers (except for a rough characterization of teams as 'power' or 'speed' reliant offenses), but the short answer has little to do with a reliance on speed in the Twins offense. Rather the Twins offense goes mostly as the 3-6 hitters go. Unfortunately those hitters are the least consistently productive of the Twins regular lineup.

Player	OPS	St. Dev.	High	Low
Mike Redmond	.680	.224	1.173	.343
Jason Tyner	.649	.221	1.026	.266
Jeff Cirillo	.741	.202	1.019	.449
Michael Cuddyer	.923	.184	1.156	.508
Joe Mauer	.849	.182	1.249	.547
Torii Hunter	.901	.174	1.180	.623
Justin Morneau	.949	.160	1.260	.689
Luis Castillo	.702	.156	.901	.372
Jason Bartlett	.666	.155	.867	.247
Nick Punto	.594	.137	.816	.370
Jason Kubel	.709	.120	.919	.512

I looked at the eleven Twins players that have the most plate appearances so far this season. For each player, I divided the 100 games of the 2007 season into 19 ten-game sections (i.e. 1-10, 6-15, 11-20, etc.), calculated the OPS for each section, and then calculated the standard deviation of that data set. I threw out any of those sections where the player had less than 15 plate appearances, which gave the results in the table at the left.

The most inconsistent performers (Tyner, Redmond, Cirillo) are those that don't play as often. The next rung on the inconsistency ladder belongs to Minnesota's "big 4"; Cuddyer, Mauer, Hunter, Morneau. The most consistent are the "little 4"; the regular players with OPS under .800 (Kubel, Bartlett, Punto, Castillo). The biggest surprise to me was Joe Mauer's numbers. It's hard to believe that Mauer is less consistent than Torii Hunter. And, in fact, if you eliminate just the 10 game stretch immediately after he came off the disabled list the standard deviation drops significantly. So I dropped the highest and lowest sections from each players data and recalculated the data.

Player	OPS	St. Dev.	Adjusted	High	Low
Jeff Cirillo	.741	.202	.175	1.019	.449
Jason Tyner	.649	.221	.164	1.026	.266
Mike Redmond	.680	.224	.163	1.173	.343
Torii Hunter	.901	.174	.156	1.180	.623
Michael Cuddyer	.923	.184	.154	1.156	.508
Justin Morneau	.949	.160	.136	1.260	.689
Luis Castillo	.702	.156	.128	.901	.372
Nick Punto	.594	.137	.122	.816	.370
Jason Bartlett	.666	.155	.117	.867	.247
Joe Mauer	.849	.182	.113	1.249	.547
Jason Kubel	.709	.120	.104	.919	.512

For the most part the trends remain the same. The bench players are the most inconsistent, probably due to the uneven amount of playing time they get during the season. Cuddyer, Hunter, and Morneau remain in the same position. They produce more overall, but their production is less consistent than others in the offense. The biggest movers in this adjustment are Joe Mauer and Jason Bartlett, who both suffered from one below average cross-section (Mauer coming off the DL, Bartlett's first 10 games of '07). Mauer is pretty remarkable. Not only is he able to produce at a high level, he's one of the most consistent hitters in the Twins lineup this season. The other players at the bottom of the table are all of the lighter hitting variety, consistently providing a lower level of offense.

Therein lies the problem with the Twins offense. The top and bottom of the order are consistently producing subpar offensive numbers (OPS of .594 to .709) so they rarely are able to pick up the slack when the middle of the order isn't at its top production. Unfortunately, it seems that the middle of the order this season has been the most unpredictable part of the offense, whether it's availability (Mauer spending significant time on the DL) or just production. If one or two (or sometimes three) of the "big 4" aren't producing, the offense almost completely evaporates. It's also interesting to note that the right-handed component of the "big 4" is the less consistent half. That might be a factor in the Twins struggles against left-handed pitching.

The inconsistency is not the fault of the middle of the order being more or less consistent than the rest of the lineup. In fact, I would predict that most of the high OPS hitters would see more variance than lighter-hitting players. Rather, it is an offense that is constructed to rely on a few people in the lineup to produce the majority of the runs, and when the remainder of the lineup doesn't heat up to cover the downswings of the big bats, the offense is doomed to sputter.

Series Preview in Blog: Toronto Blue Jays (Round 3)

This post is also published at Stick and Ball Guy's site. Stop by and check out what SBG Nation has to say.

I apologize for not getting something together for the Angels series, our cats dumped a vase of flowers on our keyboard and the bottom row stopped working for a couple of days. Being that 'Los A_geles', 'A_ahei_', and 'A_gels' all required use of the 'n' or 'm' key, I decided to pass on that for the moment. However I could have possibly posted something about 'typewriters' or 'stewaredesses', or maybe 'polkas', but it just didn't seem right. Anyway, we're back, new keyboard in hand, with the Toro_to _lue Jays.

Minnesota Twins (51-47) @ Toronto Blue Jays (48-50)

The Twins finished up a 6-4 homestand by winning two of three from the Angels. They now head out on the road for six games against the Jays and the Indians. The Blue Jays won two of three from Seattle this past weekend in Toronto and finish up their homestand with these three games against the Twins. Toronto is in third place in the AL East, 11 games behind the Red Sox, far enough out of the races that it may be time to give up on this season for the Jays front office. The Blue Jays have been a very different team in Canada, where they are 28-20 (as opposed to the US where they are 20-30). The Twins haven't played a game north of the border, but they are an even 23-23 on the road. The Twins won 4 of the 7 games played by these two teams in Minnesota.

Toronto Blue Jays Inspired Trivia: The Blue Jays are one of four franchises in the Major Leagues which have not officially retired a jersey number (excepting Jackie Robinson's 42). Can you name the other three? (Hint: at least one of the answers is a franchise over 15 years old). You can cross off the Yankees and the Nationals from your potential answers, as they have not only retired numbers, they've retired the same number twice (NY - #8, WAS - #10).

Here's the midseason report card on the Blue Jays offense. Alex Rios gets high marks, but no mention is made of his penchant for very loud shirts. There were quite a few comments on how inconsistent the Jays offense has been this season. But, when you crunch the numbers, Toronto fans have got nothing on Twins fans in that department. Of course, there are other ways to annoy your fan base. Losing on a balk is certainly right up there.

Report cards on the starters and the relievers were also filled out, with the bullpen getting high marks. The Twins will face a trio of young Toronto starters in this series, while missing Roy Halladay (Nick Punto breathes a sigh of relief). The Blue Jays have been blessed with some strong performances from their young pitchers, which is naturally a bad thing. While I can't really agree that good equals bad for the Jays, it will be interesting to see how the rotation changes in the remainder of this season and in to the next.

On Monday Johan Santana pitches against Shaun Marcum (13 starts, 3.24 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .219 BAA, 2.9 BB/9). Marcum has hit a rough patch recently, posting a 8.22 ERA over his last 3 starts. He has received the lowest amount of run support from the offense as well. In his previous outing against the Twins he held them to one run in 8 innings in a no-decision.

Tuesday brings Scott Baker and Dustin McGowan (14 starts, 4.84 ERA, .248 BAA, 3.5 BB/9). McGowan has alternated good and bad outings over the last 7 starts (2,6,0,5,0,6,2 runs allowed) and he’s due for a bad outing. Personally, I'm looking forward to the battle of the sideburns, McGowan versus Mauer. While his facial hair choices have drawn some criticism, Marcum says "My wife is the only one who likes them, and she’s the only one that counts." For more on facial hair, there are a couple of links in this entry to the best beards and mustaches in baseball. Sal Fasano is understandably featured in those lists, Fasano is currently in the Toronto farm system, and he has endeared himself to Toronto fans to the point where they have taken up the cause that the American League could have used him in the All-Star game. That's a hard pill to swallow, but what's undeniable is that Fasano has been the best Jays catcher with respect to throwing out baserunners, something the Jays have struggled with all year.

In the finale, it's Carlos Silva against Jesse Litsch (7 starts, 4.54 ERA, .317 BAA, 3.8 BB/9). All these Toronto pitchers seem to have control issues. In his start against the Twins, the rookie Litsch required a lot of pitches (89) to go only 4.3 innings, and gave up 8 hits and 3 runs.

Finally, this is the last series against the Blue Jays, so it's my last chance to mention The Batter's Box Hall of Names. A roster is assembled following a theme, and they've had a lot of great entries in the series. My favorites are Latin themed names, the last player standing from each birth year, a series on players with the same first and last initials, and, of course, the Harry Potter themed roster.

Twins Average with RISP

A recent article in the Hardball Times plotted each of the American League teams with respect to their number of at bats with runners in scoring position (RISP) and their batting average in those situations. Inspection of the plot reveals a couple of things that are obvious and unsurprising:

- Detroit and New York (two of the best team offenses in the AL) are outdistancing the rest of the league in opportunities with RISP.

- Oakland and Chicago (two of the worst team offenses in the AL) are suffering from a lack of opportunities and a failure to capitalize in those occasions.

There are also some surprises to be found. The most surprising thing that caught my attention was that the Twins seemed to be outperforming some potent offenses. They had more ABRISP than Cleveland, Boston, and Texas, while having a better BARISP than New York, Cleveland, and Boston.

Now, as any Twins blogger can tell you, the Twins offense has not been something to be described as potent this season. Rather, they have been maddeningly inconsistent and, at times, depressingly incompetent. Can these two thoughts be reconciled? Can the Twins be performing well with RISP, with plenty of chances, and still be the sometimes putrid product that fans have come to dread?

On Saturday against the Angels, Justin Morneau led off the bottom of the second inning with a double. The Twins hitters would get four plate appearances with RISP as they went single, groundout, strikeout, and popout without scoring a run. They generated lots of plate appearances, even got a hit, but didn’t actually produce any offense. This kind of inning is the reason that the Twins can be where they are on the aforementioned plot without having a similar offense to the other teams in the same area.

Here is a look at top 5 teams in the American League in plate appearances with RISP have performed:

Team	PARISP	BARISP	OPSRISP	PA/HR	PA/XBH
NY Yankees	1132	.274	.772	45.3	14.7
Detroit Tigers	1077	.321	.895	37.1	11.2
Cleveland Indians	1064	.261	.770	35.5	13.6
Boston Red Sox	1063	.270	.807	40.9	12.4
Minnesota Twins	1056	.281	.788	42.2	13.9

Once again, the Twins don’t really stick out here, their OPS is right in the middle, they don’t hit HRs as often as the other teams but the extra base hit frequency isn’t terribly out of line. So, the problem doesn’t look like it is with production with RISP. The story of stranded Justin Morneau that I related at the beginning of this article doesn’t seem to be indicative of the Twins production in general (although it certainly feels like it has happens often).

Moving forward, the top 5 teams in the AL in runs scored and the Twins are shown below, as well as the percentage of their runs that came in plate appearances with RISP. This is not a perfect number, because it will also include batters driving themselves in with homeruns and runners scoring from first, but we’ll tackle that after we take a look at this.

Detroit Tigers	78.5%
Cleveland Indians	74.5%
New York Yankees	77.0%
Boston Red Sox	77.5%
Texas Rangers	75.5%
Minnesota Twins	82.0%

First of all, these are essentially the same teams as before although the Rangers have scored more runs than the Twins (who rank eighth in the AL in R/G). Looking at the percentages we begin to get an idea of where the Twins offense is failing. On average the top 5 offenses in the league are scoring 76.6% of their runs in PARISP. The Twins have a significantly higher percentage than that (82.0%) which indicates that if the Twins don’t have their runners in scoring position they are much less likely to drive in a run than these other teams.

In order to try to approximate the trouble that Minnesota has scoring runners from first, I subtracted all homeruns and any runners that scored from first on homeruns. I did not find a time-efficient way to account for runners scoring from first in 1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd, and bases loaded situations, so this remains a rough approximation, but it backs up my previous point. The Twins remain the highest percentage on the list, and in fact, have further separated themselves (in the wrong direction) from the average of the other 5 teams (67.9%).

Detroit Tigers	70.6%
Cleveland Indians	64.1%
New York Yankees	69.5%
Boston Red Sox	69.2%
Texas Rangers	66.2%
Minnesota Twins	73.7%

Before we finish, here’s one last point about the Twins not being able to score runners from first at the same rate as the elite offenses of the AL. In situations where there was only a runner on first, the Twins are, unsurprisingly, the least likely to score that runner. Of course there are lots of other situations that aren’t accounted for here, but it’s another point toward the conclusion that the Twins lack of power is all that is holding them back from being among the best offenses in the American League.

Team	R	PA/R
Detroit Tigers	35	19.0
Cleveland Indians	44	16.1
New York Yankees	41	17.5
Boston Red Sox	37	19.5
Texas Rangers	37	16.5
Minnesota Twins	32	21.0

The offense is getting people into scoring position and hitting at a reasonable clip when they get there. However, they haven’t been able to complement that RISP success with a few extra base hits that score runners that are not in scoring position. I’m nowhere near the first to say this, and I’m sure I won’t be the last, but it would very much help the Twins to pick up a powerful bat, either at the trade deadline or in the offseason. In fact, an upgrade in this area is one the few differences betwixt the Twins and the best offenses in the AL.

Series Preview in Blog: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Round 2)

The Twins will face starters John Lackey, Jered Weaver, and Joe Saunders in this series, all of whom have 'J' as their first initial. 34 of 95 games so far in 2007 have been against starters whose 1st name starts with ‘J’ (most of any initial).

Starters with first initial 'J' - 5.3 R/9
Starters with a different first initial - 4.8 R/9

On the subject of starting pitcher’s first initials, the Twins have faced five initials five times or more. They have had the most success against the letter ‘D’ (5.6 R/9).

'M' is the letter that has given the Twins the most trouble (allowing 3.1 runs per nine innings). (Doesn’t get much more trivial than that, does it?)

First Initial	Gms	IP	R/9
A	5	28.0	5.1
B	1	6.0	10.5
C	12	70.1	4.7
D	5	29.0	5.6
E	3	9.0	14.0
F	3	17.0	2.6
G	1	5.2	9.5
J	34	214.0	5.3
K	4	23.2	5.3
L	2	8.1	3.3
M	6	34.1	3.2
N	2	14.0	1.9
O	3	16.1	6.1
P	1	7.0	6.4
R	3	18.0	5.5
S	3	22.0	2.0
T	3	21.1	1.3
V	2	8.1	8.6
Z	2	12.0	3.0

Series Preview in Blog: Detroit Tigers (Round 4)

This post is also published at Stick and Ball Guy's site. Stop by and check out what SBG Nation has to say.

Minnesota Twins (49-43) vs. Detroit Tigers (54-36)

The Twins came out of the All-Star break on fire, sweeping Oakland in four games. They enter this series a season-high 6 games over .500, with six games remaining on the current homestand. The Tigers went into the break on a hot streak, 6-1 in July, but they come to the Metrodome after splitting four games in Seattle. The fact that Detroit didn’t win the road series is a bit of a rarity, they have won the last four road series and have a better record on the road, with a 29-17 mark away from the Motor City. That is the best road record in the majors (closest is Arizona at 27-20). The Twins’ home record improved dramatically over the last weekend to 26-20, which is nowhere near the best home record in the majors (Cleveland 33-13 holds that distinction).

I’m not looking for a war with Major League Baseball, but I have a problem that the minute anything happens, suddenly a suspension comes into play. I don’t think that’s right. There are going to be arguments. When you’re playing for big stakes, there are going to be arguments. If they want to take that away, let’s just go to Sunday school.

-Jim Leyland, on Pudge's impending suspension for contact with an umpire

Here's one of the dangers of blogging. If you post something about the questions facing the team in the second half, there is always the chance that someone else will answer them on their own blog. Then, suddenly, someone else gives their opinions and calls you out. Then, of course, you have no recourse but to answer your own questions. All in all, every one of the three respondents were very wary of the Twins, despite the fact that they aren't as close as Cleveland.

A little over a week ago, ubelmann looked at the Twins distribution of runs scored and runs allowed. In a similar vein, Billfer at the Detroit Tigers Weblog looks at the same distributions, and surprisingly, the Tigers score more and allow more than the Twins. My favorite quote from the entry was, "with runs allowed, one would expect the Tigers to have a 42.6-43.4 record given normal run support. So essentially without the strength of their offense they’d be a .500 team." Detroit's offense has been a strength all season long, and it has been starting with the leadoff hitter Curtis Granderson. He has been among the league leaders in extra base hits the entire season, and has already accumulated 16 triples. So many triples so quickly has drawn some attention, but looking at others who have hit a lot of triples in the first half, there may be a drop-off in the remainder of the season. Granderson doesn't hit like a typical leadoff hitter. His OBP is lower than ideal, but all those extra-base hits could be a way to make up for that. Baseball Musings looked at the difference and decided that an on-base percentage point is worth more than a slugging percentage point.

Something that probably won't affect the offense at all (in a negative fashion, anyway) is Neifi Perez' suspension for testing positive for stimulants.

So now we’ve gone from Neifi!! being an occasional defensive help and a constant offensive wasteland to Neifi!! being little more than a dustbunny for the team. You know what I mean. Useless, a little gross, nobody quite knows how it got there, and you really just want to sweep it back under the bed from whence it came.
- Roar of the Tigers

Probably one of the main reasons for the difficulty the Tigers have had in preventing runs has been the fact that it has been a revolving door of pitchers on the club due to injury, promotions, demotions, and trades. Overall, the Tigers have lost about $5M in salary to the disabled list from their pitching staff alone. A majority of that comes from Kenny Rogers missing almost half the season, so that number may be a bit inflated for effect.

Starting Pitchers for the next three days:

Matt Garza vs. Nate Robertson

Garza makes his second start of the ’07 season after his successful debut against the White Sox. Nate Robertson makes his fourth start after coming off the DL. In his last three starts he has gone 1-0, with just over 5 innings per start and an ERA of 4.32. Robertson has his own blog, and he is certainly maintaining a positive attitude about his return to the team and just about everything else.

I couldn't decide on a favorite Santana image, so you decide: Deranged St. Nick is from Stop Mike Lupica, while the much more cuddly monster is from Roar of the Tigers

Johan Santana vs. Andrew Miller

Andrew Miller represents the second lefty in a row Detroit will throw at the Twins. Minnesota has had a little more trouble with left-handed starters (4.52 R/9) than right-handed starters (5.32 R/9), scoring almost a full run less per nine innings. Counter to that trend, the Twins scored 6 runs off of Miller in 5 innings the last time they met, which has been by far Miller's worst start of his season. He has earned the decision in all seven of his starts.

Scott Baker vs. Jeremy Bonderman

Once again the series finale will pit Baker against Bonderman. The last time these two met, Baker was excellent, but Bonderman was just one run better as the Tigers avoided a sweep, winning 1-0. Hopefully the Twins find themselves in a similar position coming into the game and get a similarly outstanding performance from Baker, and I’ll take my chances that the offense puts enough runs on the board.

Finally, Gary Sheffield has made some comments recently about steroids, Barry Bonds, and Joe Torre's treatment of specific players on the Yankees. If you're interested, here's some background on the Torre situation, using stories from Sheff's book to dissect the situation. For the lighter side of the interview, look to Sheffield's definition of steroids.

Series Preview in Blog: Oakland Athletics (Round 2)

This post is also published at Stick and Ball Guy's site. Stop by and check out what SBG Nation has to say.

Minnesota Twins (45-43) vs. Oakland Athletics (44-44)

Both of these teams are right around .500, and in that spirit the Twins have been alternating winning and losing nicely, going 12-12 in their last 24, and 5-6 in their last 11. In the week before the All-Star break, Oakland stumbled a bit, falling back to .500 with a 2-5 record in series losses to Toronto and Seattle at home. Going back a bit further, the A's went 5-12 going into the break. The A's are currently in third place in the AL West, 9 games back of the Angels. They bring a 21-21 road record into this series. The Twins were 22-20 at home in the first half with some tough opponents coming up on this 10-game homestand. The A's will be followed by the Tigers and the Angels at the Metrodome.

Despite the A's well-documented tendency to start slow and come on strong in the second half, there are still reasons to think that this team isn't equipped to make a similar surge this year. For gnasing of teeth in list form, here's ten things that are bothering Oakland fans.

On the other side of the spectrum, one of everyone's fondest memories of baseball probably involve going to games as a youngster. If you're really lucky you can have your first ever game (and first bench-clearing brawl) immortalized in photo essay form just in case you don't remember it very well.

The A's haven't announced their starting pitchers for this series anywhere that I looked, so all I can tell you is that Chad Gaudin will start against Scott Baker tonight. Gaudin has posted a very respectable 2.88 ERA thus far this season, but has been walking a lot of batters (5.0 BB/9 over his last 8 starts). That was the theme in his previous start against the Twins as well, when he walked 5 batters in 5 innings, but only allowed 2 runs to pick up the win. The walks are certainly a worrying trend, but perhaps we should be more worried about the power of Ryan at Catfish Stew to influence the performance of A's pitchers through his posts. If that trend continues, expect Gaudin to have pinpoint control and a career high in strikeouts tonight.

The probable starters for this series are still in flux due to the number of injuries affecting the A's pitching staff. Rich Harden made his first start since April in the week before the break, going 2.2 IP while allowing 4 runs. His ability to give the A's consistent innings will go a long way toward clearing up the starting rotation for the second half. Closer Huston Street has also been on the DL since May, but he is expected to replace the glass of Syrah with a baseball sometime in the second half. (More on Street's interest in wine here)

Finally, your first ballgame is great, but can it compare to a dancing mascot?

Happy Birthday!

Happy Birthday Buttercup!

Thanks for everything you do.

June Strength of Schedule

Check out the earlier post on strength of schedule for explanations of these numbers.

First up is the AL Central:

AL Central	May Record	May SOS	Expected June SOS	Actual June SOS	Difference	June Record	Expected July SOS
Chicago White Sox	12-14	.473	.439	.472	-33	10-18	.524
Cleveland Indians	19-11	.526	.468	.474	-6	15-13	.488
Detroit Tigers	16-12	.547	.496	.514	-18	16-10	.536
Kansas City Royals	11-17	.543	.504	.511	-7	15-12	.524
Minnesota Twins	13-14	.502	.530	.504	26	15-12	.526

The Tigers continued to win in June, actually improving on their .571 winning percentage of May with a .615 winning percentage in June. They did that despite having the most difficult opponents of the teams in the division. The Tigers won series against the Indians, Mets, Brewers, and Braves. All of those teams were over .500 when the Tigers met them. The Indians played just a touch over .500 against a much easier schedule. The Indians missed opportunities by losing two of three to both Cincinnati and Washington. The surprise of the month was the Kansas City Royals who finished the month of June three games above .500, the highlight being a three game sweep of the Angels.

The Twins, for the most part, kept pace with their divisional opponents, they lost a couple games in the standings to the Tigers, but stayed right with the Indians. The difference in expected SOS and actual SOS comes from the Braves, Mets, and Brewers coming back to earth a bit after hot starts, and the Nationals playing the Twins tougher than one might expect. The Twins can't afford to just keep pace with the Tigers and Indians anymore. They have remained on the perimeter of striking distance for most of the season, but now is the time to make their move.

Coming up, the Tigers have a tough month, with the Angels, A's, Mariners, Indians, and Twins all on their schedule. They have already won 2 of 3 from Cleveland, so it could be more of the same from Detroit. Cleveland has a relatively easy schedule, with series against KC, Chicago, and Texas. However, they also have the aforementioned series with Detroit, along with games against Boston and Minnesota. If Cleveland can beat the teams it is supposed to beat, it should be a pretty straightforward July for the Tribe.

As I have already mentioned, the Twins have a big month. They have division rivals Cleveland and Detroit, in addition to series against Oakland, Los Angeles (of Anaheim), and the Yankees. By the end of the month we should know where the Twins stand in relation to the best teams of the AL Central. They've been keeping the deficit manageable, but now is the time for some big wins against tough opponents.

For completeness, here’s the remainder of the American League:

AL East	May Record	May SOS	Expected June SOS	Actual June SOS	Difference	June Record	Expected July SOS
Baltimore Orioles	15-13	.515	.528	.504	24	8-17	.477
Boston Red Sox	20-8	.519	.504	.522	-18	13-14	.468
New York Yankees	13-15	.514	.532	.440	92	14-11	.480
Tampa Bay Devil Rays	11-15	.469	.505	.478	27	11-17	.535
Toronto Blue Jays	12-16	.515	.506	.444	62	14-13	.530

AL West	May Record	May SOS	Expected June SOS	Actual June SOS	Difference	June Record	Expected July SOS
Los Angeles Angels	18-11	.511	.456	.470	-14	17-9	.492
Oakland Athletics	14-13	.461	.528	.469	59	15-13	.536
Seattle Mariners	16-14	.532	.479	.495	-16	18-9	.505
Texas Rangers	9-20	.479	.502	.555	-53	14-12	.564

Series Preview in Blog: Chicago White Sox (Round 3)

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Minnesota Twins (43-41) @ Chicago White Sox (37-45)

The Twins head into the All-Star break with four games in three games in Chicago. This series wraps up the current road trip, on which the Twins dropped to 3-4 when they lost 3 of 4 to the Yankees in New York. After an over .500 June (15-12), the Twins have stumbled out of the gate in July, starting off 1-4. The White Sox finish their seven game homestand with this weekend’s series. The previous series the Sox split 4 games with Baltimore after a successful 6-1 road trip through Tampa and Kansas City. The Sox remain in fourth place in the AL Central, 12.5 games back of the first place Indians, and 5 games behind the third place Twins. The Sox have struggled more at home than on the road, posting a 17-23 record in The Cell where they haven’t won a series since May 23 (they have split two series in that span). Meanwhile the Twins remain right around .500 on the road, with a record of 21-21.

While the Sox have certainly fallen short of their expectations this season, if they just had a little more grit they would probably be just fine, right? Grit or no grit, at least their manager still knows how to keep loose as they flail away. Still, when your team struggles like the White Sox have, it seems like every game is the same old story.

I thought it was interesting that Kenny Williams, the White Sox GM, will often consult with players before making roster moves. Not quite as surprising is that sometimes he wishes Ozzie would just shut up.

On Friday, the series kicks off with a double header which is a makeup game for the cancelled game in April. Since the other two games of the series were split betwixt the two teams, the Twins have a chance to win two series in one weekend (in a manner of speaking). Toward that goal, Scott Baker, fresh off two quality starts, will face Jon Garland (6-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), who has posted a 1.91 ERA since June 1 in 6 starts. In the nightcap, Twins fans get their first look at a Matt Garza as a starting pitcher when he will start against Gavin Floyd, who was recently recalled from the minors and will also be making his first major league start this season. He made 15 minor league starts this season with a 7-3 record, a 3.10 ERA, 0.67 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 7.7 K/9. For more, here's a review of one of those 15 starts.

Saturday afternoon will pit Boof Bonser against Mark Buehrle (5-4, 3.26 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) who's future has been the subject of intense speculation for quite a while now. This could be the last time the Twins have to face Buehrle in a White Sox uniform (picture from South Side Sox). As always, Mark has been an innings eater for the Sox. He has thrown more than seven innings in each of his last five starts (1.91 ERA in that span).

The Buehrle saga began with the Sox trying to negotiate a contract extension, but as the Sox struggled, and the deal didn't get done, people began to speculate as to the possibility of a trade. The deal has been on and off a few times. The hang-up on the extension was apparently a no-trade clause, which Buehrle wanted, but the Sox were unwilling to give.

It's always been a tough franchise to embrace, and even in the afterglow of immense success, the stone face always seems to make itself evident. … It often seems like the Sox organization is businesslike on good days, cold on bad days, and vengeful in the ugliest of times. And that's why fans get so worked up when a guy like Buehrle is on the cusp of leaving, because he's none of those things. Aaron Rowand's presence is demanded on every message board, mailbag and call-in show for the exact same reasons.

-Sox Machine

Going into the All-Star break the Twins will send Carlos Silva to the mound to face Javier Vazquez (5-5, 3.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), who has been, in a word, inconsistent this season. But when he has been on, he has been very good. He has 6 starts this year where he has allowed 1 run or less (including two starts against the Twins).

The attentive reader has probably noticed that starting pitching is not the reason the Sox are currently under .500. The bullpen has been pretty shaky, which has given Sox fans a whole new way to interpret Win Expectancy.

Finally, if you have read either of the first two White Sox previews, you know I'm a fan of Palehose 7. Recently, it has been trying times over there as Ozzie Captain Hand has had to deal with the legend of Aaron Rowand.

One Good Week: Scott Baker

SCOTT BAKER June 26 – July 3
(2 GS, 0-1, 1.20 ERA, 15 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 12 K)

From the outset, 2007 was an important season for Scott Baker. He had spent portions of the last two years with the Twins (with varying degrees of success), and this season would go a long way toward determining the role Baker would play with the organization in the future. Coming into the 2007 season, he was one of many young pitchers that were vying for a position in the rotation. Well, we all know how spring training turned out; Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz started the season with the major league team while Baker, Matt Garza, and Kevin Slowey began the season in Rochester at AAA. The two veterans were eventually phased out of the rotation while Slowey and Baker were called up as their replacements.

Baker had an impressive debut campaign in 2005 (see table below for numbers) but followed that up with a bit of a disappointing 2006 (again, the table below has numbers to back me up). Meanwhile, despite his struggles last year, Baker dominated AAA in ’06 and ’07 which only reinforced that he had little to prove except at the major league level. On May 19, Baker was called up and delivered an impressive first start against Milwaukee (8.1 IP, 2 ER). In his next 5 starts, Baker posted an ERA of 8.37 with a WHIP of 1.94 while not lasting 6 innings in any of the five starts. The outlook at that point was less than sunny, but Baker turned things around for at least a week with the two starts noted above. In fact, in his last two starts, the only thing more adept at preventing runs than Baker has been the Twins offense. Baker received one run of support in 16 innings of Twins “offense”.

	GS	W-L	IP	ER	H	BB	SO	ERA	WHIP	BAA
2005	9	3-3	52.2	20	47	14	32	3.42	1.16	.240
2006	16	5-8	83.1	59	114	16	62	6.37	1.56	.324
2007	8	2-3	47.0	26	50	11	35	4.98	1.30	.273

The Twins offense is not the subject of this article however. Scott Baker’s recent success is. Looking at his numbers season by season it's obvious that opponents were hitting Baker harder in 2006 than his other seasons (BAA and WHIP higher, BB rate constant), resulting in a much higher ERA. Looking at some other rate stats (another table coming up) it is clear that is the result of Scott's HR/FB returning to a more normal 12.5% from an unsustainably low rate in 2005. Also it seems he was a little bit unlucky as the BABIP of his opponents was significantly higher than normal. Once again the .264 BABIP in 2005 is probably unsustainable for a young pitcher like Baker, as examples Fransisco Liriano and Johan Santana had BABIP of .286 and .273 respectively in 2006. Baker's difficulties arose from the fact that he was allowing a lot of HR due to his high HR/FB and his low GB/FB percentage. Even when the ball stayed in the park, batters were reaching safely (probably due to the higher line drive percentage). This year, so far the BABIP has returned to something closer to normal with a corresponding drop in line drive percentage. The HR/FB ratio has remained a bit of a concern, but the effect of that has been mitigated somewhat by the fact that there have been a lot fewer fly balls in general due to an increase in the GB/FB ratio.

	K/9	GB/FB	LD%	HR/FB	BABIP
2005	5.5	0.83	23.8%	7.1%	.264
2006	6.7	0.72	29.5%	12.5%	.355
2007	6.7	1.18	23.4%	13.7%	.305

In Baker's last two starts he has accumulated a WPA of +0.502 compared to -0.857 in his previous 5 starts. He has kept the ball in the park (1 HR in 15 IP, 7.7% HR/FB) while inducing a good amount of ground balls (1.23 GB/FB ratio). Couple that with a slight kick in strikeout rate (7.2 K/9) and you have an extremely effective starting pitcher on your hands. Baker has certainly gotten a bit lucky in these starts, evidenced by the .167 BABIP this week. While that is not always going to be the case, the hope is that going forward from here the Twin's offense will give Scott a little more breathing room, so that even with the inevitable correction in BABIP and HR/FB, the more frequent occurrence of ground balls and strikeouts will be enough to increase the likelihood of success in Baker's starts this season.

The Mind of Dwayne Hoover: The Iowa Baseball Confederacy

This is another entry in "The Mind of Dwayne Hoover". If you're wondering what that means, check out the introductory post for a full list of entries in this series. Enjoy!

The Iowa Baseball Confederacy, by W. P. Kinsella

“My name is Gideon Clarke, and, like my father before me, I have on more than one occasion been physically ejected from the corporate offices of the Chicago Cubs Baseball Club."

In Big Inning (beginning?), Iowa there was baseball. Gideon Clarke knows this, just like his father knew it. Gideon’s father was struck by lightning and imbued with an encyclopedic knowledge of a baseball league called the Iowa Baseball Confederacy. The catch is that there is no evidence, physical or anecdotal, that this league ever existed. Old newspapers don’t have any box scores, former players, owners, even the commissioner deny the existence of this baseball league. The Chicago Cubs front office certainly will not acknowledge that, in 1908, the Cubs traveled to Big Inning to play an exhibition double-header against a team of Iowa Baseball Confederacy All-Stars. The town of Big Inning has since been renamed Onamata and the old baseball field is gone. It is as if every trace and memory of the Confederacy has been wiped from the face of the earth.

Gideon inherits the knowledge of the Iowa Baseball Confederacy when his father dies. He also inherits the obsession of finding proof that this league existed. After years of searching, one man reveals to Gideon that he remembers playing in the Confederacy, and with his help, Gideon finds himself transported back to July 4, 1908, the day of the scheduled double-header pitting the Iowa Baseball Confederacy All-Stars against the Chicago Cubs. Stan, a career minor leaguer, who has pursued his dream of a major league opportunity for far too long, accompanies Gideon on his travel back in time. This date is important, because this is the point that the Clarke family’s memory of the Confederacy stops. After this date, there is no mention of the league in their memories, nor is there any mention of why it ceased to be.

What happened during this game that ended the Confederacy?

It turns out that nearly everything happens over the course of over 2,000 innings of baseball. The Cubs and All-Stars battle each other in a ridiculously protracted game, whenever the Cubs score to take the lead in the top of the inning, the Confederacy comes back to tie the game in the bottom. Gideon’s friend Stan finds himself playing in the game, which is as close as he has ever come to fulfilling his dream of playing in the big leagues.

That is one of the themes of this book. While Stan is coming so close to fulfilling his obsession, Gideon is witnessing the vindication of his and his father’s years of research and frustration. Both of them have found everything they could have ever wanted in this baseball game.

“Why not baseball?” my father would say. “Name me a more perfect game! Name me a game with more possibilities for magic, voodoo, hoodoo, enchantment, obsession, possession. There’s always time for daydreaming, time to create your own illusions at the ballpark. I bet there isn’t a magician anywhere who doesn’t love baseball. No mere mortal could have dreamed up the dimensions of a baseball field. No man could be that perfect. … The field runs to infinity,” he would shout, gesturing wildly. “You ever think of that, Gid? There’s no limit to how far a man might possibly hit a ball, and there’s no limit to how far a fleet outfielder might run to retrieve it. The foul lines run on forever, forever diverging. There’s no place in America that’s not part of a major-league ballfield.”

But the game continues on. It is unmoved by the obsessions and dreams of those involved with it. Numerous times Stan and Gideon marvel at the fact that this game is essentially the same as the game played in the present. Similarly, the game played by the semi-pros of the Confederacy is exactly the same as that played by the best team in the game, their opponents, the Cubs. Indeed, the game chews up its participants and spits them out. Players go mad and leave the game. When Gideon faces Cubs pitcher Three Finger Brown, he describes “His uniform rotting off his body; the sole of his left shoe, flapping. He looks back from his blue-glazed face, weary, but his eyes burn so much I feel I can see the electric glow of them.”

It is not just the player’s obsessions that try to influence the game. The Cubs front office (business) tries to order them back to finish the Major League season, but the team remains in Iowa while they fall further and further behind in the standings. The U. S. president, Theodore Roosevelt (politics) drops by to give his thoughts on the game, but he takes his turn at bat, is struck out, and the game continues. Nature sends a never-ending downpour and lightning strikes, but the game continues on unabated. Even Leonardo DaVinci (science) appears and considers tinkering with his invention (he claims baseball as his own). But he can’t find a way to improve the game. Religion also takes its turn, in the form of the Twelve-Hour Church of Time Immemorial. Their constant refrain of “we shall not be moved” could be construed as the theme song for this particular game, but, in the end, they find themselves washed away with everything else, leaving only baseball.

Unfortunately for Gideon, he comes to realize that the Confederacy is doomed. Once the game is finished, he will be returned to his own time and possibly lose everything he has gained through this game. As he is told in the early stages of the game:

“Then you have learned one thing – that accomplishing your heart’s desire is not all as wonderful as you expected.”

For Kinsella, baseball is a magical game that has untold layers and reflections in American society. Kinsella is the author of Shoeless Joe, the book that is the basis for the movie Field of Dreams. He has also published a lot of short story collections, mostly having to do with baseball and Iowa (I think we all see the theme here). Portions of The Iowa Baseball Confederacy initially appeared in some of those short story collections. The Iowa Baseball Confederacy was a book that I considered my favorite for a while in junior high. Mostly because I really liked Shoeless Joe, but whenever I would name that book people would start talking about Field of Dreams (which I hadn't seen). So, being the contrarian that I am, I chose Kinsella's lesser known book as my favorite, even though I knew it probably wasn't as good. This book was a pretty easy read (I finished it in a couple of sittings). It was enjoyable the second time around, as when I read it the first time I was probably 12 or 13 years old, so this time I was able to appreciate a lot more of the book. There are a lot of unexplained and mystical events, which some people have found difficult to swallow. I would recommend Shoeless Joe before this book, but if you like Kinsella's style, this book has that in spades.

Series Preview in Blog: New York Yankees (Round 2)

If you missed it, check out what the Wild did this weekend.

This post is also published at Stick and Ball Guy's site. Stop by and check out what SBG Nation has to say.

Minnesota Twins (42-38) @ New York Yankees (37-41)

The Twins finished June strong, going 13-6 before starting off July with a frustrating 1-0 loss to the Tigers on Sunday night. The Yankees, on the other hand, started off strong in June, going 13-2 before losing 9 of their last 11 games including 2 of 3 to Oakland this weekend to start off their current 10 game homestand. The Yankees will host the Angels following the Twins series leading into the All-Star break. The Yankees slide has put them 11 games back of the Red Sox, in third place in the division. They have struggled on the road, but are a respectable 21-16 at Yankee Stadium. The Twins come into the Bronx with a 20-18 record on the road. The Twins also have an odd statistic of losing or splitting 8 of 9 of the first three series of each month this season (the only series win coming with the sweep of Baltimore in the season opener).

All-Star Trivia: If Pat Neshek were to win the Final Vote and be named to the All-Star team, he would be a rarity in that he would be named as a relief pitcher who isn't a closer (38 appearances, 0 saves). Who was the last relief pitcher to be named to the All-Star team without recording a save through the All-Star break in that season? (hint: it's not Fransisco Liriano in '06, who had 12 relief appearances but recorded 1 save)

The Yankees recent swoon (and large divisional deficit) has caused a lot of Yankee fans to pack it in for this season. Others are trying to justify their continued attention, or put the season into some kind of context. Still others are turning their attention to the other teams in the league, trying to combat the commonly held misconception that New Yorkers only care about New York. Here's one Yankee fan's look at the rest of the big leagues.

Many frustrated Yankee fans are pointing the finger at Torre and Cashman. Cashman is no doubt trying to acquire the best pieces out there for the Yankees. Although, he's not so busy that he has forgotten about his adoring fans. According to his diary, Steinbrenner is dreaming of firing Torre, while at the same time plotting his revenge on those who cast the "Bronx is Burning" series on ESPN. As far as replacements for Torre, why not Billy Joel?

There were a couple of recurring items that were brought up in my searches as causes for the Yankee struggles. Both first base and the outfield have struggled offensively. With Doug Mientkiewicz's injury, a surprising number of replacements have been auditioned at the first base position. Giambi, never the best option in the field, is dealing with a torn plantar fascia. Even Jorge Posada got a turn at first. Of course, these being the Yankees, there is always the option of acquiring a replacement from outside the organization. In the outfield, Johnny Damon has been injured, but not enough to go on the DL, so he continues to struggle trying to play through the pain. At some point, enough is enough, NoMaas has put together the following campaign poster for the good of the Yankees outfield.

Pitching matchups for this four game set include Boof Bonser taking on Roger Clemens on Monday, who's much ballyhooed return began with a victory in his first start, but has since not been very productive (0-3, 5.40 ERA, 1.56 WHIP in 3 starts).

Tuesday brings Carlos Silva against Chien-Ming Wang (7-4, 3.86 ERA). Wang didn't get a loss in June, going 4-0 over 6 starts. However, in his last two starts he earned two no-decisions while giving up 10 runs.

Johan Santana will face Mike Mussina (4-5, 4.63 ERA) on Wednesday. Mussina made an abbreviated start against the Twins in April but left after two innings and ended up on the DL. Recently, Mussina has been effective, not allowing more than 3 runs in any of his last 5 starts.

The finale on Thursday will pit Kevin Slowey against Kei Igawa. Igawa was sent to the minors for most of May and June, since his recall, he has made two starts, posting an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.45.

Not many links in the starting pitching section of this preview. That's because all the action is in the bullpen. Kyle Farnsworth attracted some attention when he threw a tantrum after being unable to finish an inning recently. His lack of success thus far (ERA over 6 in his last 10 appearances) in 2007 hasn't earned him much tolerance in the Yankee blogging community. Adding to the insanity is the fact that Scott Proctor is perhaps misunderstanding the bullpen's role of "putting out fires". This, of course, comes after another outing that does nothing to inspire confidence in Yankees fans.

Finally, this would probably fit better in AMR's Mugshot Purgatory, but I found it too late last night to pass it on. Ten of the remaining sixteen contestants in the Mustache Madness bracket are former Yankees (Sal Fasano sighting!). That is a long and storied mustachioed tradition that Yankee fans should certainly be proud of.