11 July 2007

June Strength of Schedule

Check out the earlier post on strength of schedule for explanations of these numbers.

First up is the AL Central:

AL CentralMay RecordMay SOSExpected June SOSActual June SOSDifferenceJune RecordExpected July SOS
Chicago White Sox12-14.473.439.472-33
Cleveland Indians19-11.526.468.474-615-13.488
Detroit Tigers16-12.547.496.514-1816-10.536
Kansas City Royals11-17.543.504.511-715-12.524
Minnesota Twins13-14.502.530.50426

The Tigers continued to win in June, actually improving on their .571 winning percentage of May with a .615 winning percentage in June. They did that despite having the most difficult opponents of the teams in the division. The Tigers won series against the Indians, Mets, Brewers, and Braves. All of those teams were over .500 when the Tigers met them. The Indians played just a touch over .500 against a much easier schedule. The Indians missed opportunities by losing two of three to both Cincinnati and Washington. The surprise of the month was the Kansas City Royals who finished the month of June three games above .500, the highlight being a three game sweep of the Angels.

The Twins, for the most part, kept pace with their divisional opponents, they lost a couple games in the standings to the Tigers, but stayed right with the Indians. The difference in expected SOS and actual SOS comes from the Braves, Mets, and Brewers coming back to earth a bit after hot starts, and the Nationals playing the Twins tougher than one might expect. The Twins can't afford to just keep pace with the Tigers and Indians anymore. They have remained on the perimeter of striking distance for most of the season, but now is the time to make their move.

Coming up, the Tigers have a tough month, with the Angels, A's, Mariners, Indians, and Twins all on their schedule. They have already won 2 of 3 from Cleveland, so it could be more of the same from Detroit. Cleveland has a relatively easy schedule, with series against KC, Chicago, and Texas. However, they also have the aforementioned series with Detroit, along with games against Boston and Minnesota. If Cleveland can beat the teams it is supposed to beat, it should be a pretty straightforward July for the Tribe.

As I have already mentioned, the Twins have a big month. They have division rivals Cleveland and Detroit, in addition to series against Oakland, Los Angeles (of Anaheim), and the Yankees. By the end of the month we should know where the Twins stand in relation to the best teams of the AL Central. They've been keeping the deficit manageable, but now is the time for some big wins against tough opponents.

For completeness, here’s the remainder of the American League:

AL EastMay RecordMay SOSExpected June SOSActual June SOSDifferenceJune RecordExpected July SOS
Baltimore Orioles15-13.515.528.50424
Boston Red Sox20-8
New York Yankees13-15
Tampa Bay Devil Rays11-15.469.505.4782711-17
Toronto Blue Jays12-16.515.506.44462

AL WestMay RecordMay SOSExpected June SOSActual June SOSDifferenceJune RecordExpected July SOS
Los Angeles Angels18-11.511.456.470-1417-9
Oakland Athletics14-13.461.528.46959
Seattle Mariners16-14.532.479.495-1618-9
Texas Rangers9-20

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